The market for “Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?” is currently priced at 0.8% ...

Netanyahu demands Iran remove uranium, complicating US-Iran nuclear talks. Iran to surrender uranium by December 31, 2026 at ...

Netanyahu states the Iran conflict is ongoing and calls for uranium removal. Iran to surrender enriched uranium by December ...

– Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace proposal appears to increase the likelihood of US military action. – The prospects for a ...

– France’s mission with Iran suggests a de-escalation effort, consistent with reduced strike likelihood. – Coordination with ...

Iran offers to end conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Crude Oil reaching $150 in May drops to 2.6% YES.

Iran proposed transferring enriched uranium to a third country. Surrender of uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026 at 44.5% ...

A bulk carrier fire off Qatar raises tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Normal traffic by May 15 at 1.4% YES, by end of May at ...

Trump warns Iran of consequences amid rising military tensions. WTI Crude Oil at $110 by May 2026 priced at 41.5% YES.

US launches Operation Economic Fury targeting Iran's economy. Diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 priced at 24.5% YES.

Warships Through Strait of Hormuz by May 31: Currently priced at 21% YES, up from 12% in the last 24 hours. Strait of Hormuz ...

Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026, is priced at 16.5% YES, showing a slight increase from 16% 24 hours ago.